Mock Draft 3.0

Wouldn't you know it, the day I post mock 2.0 the Broncos trade Jay Cutler to the Bears and mess the whole thing up. Fortunately, ESPN now has a cool new tool called the Mock Machine, which lets you quickly and easily drag and drop players into slots and create a 1 round mock. It's super cool. I only wish you could embed it into your blog. Oh well.

You can also have it compare your results to Mel Kiper and ESPN Sportsnation results if you want.

There are some interesting changes in SHBMD 3.0 that have more to do with players rising and falling than so much with the Cutler trade.

No question, the dominant positions are OT, DE\LB and WR. Unlike last year, when no receiver was taken until the 2nd round, I believe that as many as 7 may go in round 1 this year, led by Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Maclin, who could both be top 10 picks. By contrast, I only see 3 corners and 2 RB’s making the first round.

I believe at this point the Lions will take Matthew Stafford over Jason Smith, simply because they can get a good tackle at #20. The Rams, assuming they’re stuck at #2, will probably take Smith and I have Wake Forrest LB Aaron Curry going to the Chiefs at #3. After that the Seahawks take Mark Sanchez at #4, a pick for which they will be highly criticized but which should pay off in the end. Crabtree is tempting but QB is a far more important position. The Browns start off the next 4 picks with Texas DE Brian Orakpo, an excellent fit for defensive minded head coach Eric Mangini. Don’t rule out a trade with the Broncos or Jets later on for Brady Quinn though if there is another player that Mangini likes at either #12, #17 or #18. It would be interesting to see Mangini snub the Jets and send Quinn to Broncos at #18 just after the Jets are forced to take Josh Freeman.

Next, I see the Bengals taking Eugene Monroe and the Faiders taking Crabtree, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Crabtree end up with the Bengals and Chad Ocho-cinco go to the Faiders for a 2nd round pick. The Jags were probably hoping for Sanchez but settle for Maclin, who hopefully can make some plays for them.

The next 4 picks are pretty easy to suss out. The Packers will be tempted by Andre Smith but they need DT BJ Rajii more, the 49’ers will say thank you very much and take Smith, and the productive Aaron Maybin will go to the Bills to reunite with his old college teammate Paul Polsluzny. The Broncos will pass on Josh Freeman in order to show support for Kyle Orton and to rebuild the defense. DT Peria Jerry is a mild surprise but run stuffing DT’s are hard to come by.

At #13, the Redskins need a DE and Everette Brown fills the need nicely. I think they’ll seriously consider Michael Oher as a RT with the potential to replace Chris Samuels on the left side eventually, but they spent a ton of picks on the offense last year. Next, the Saints pass on the RB’s to take USC OLB Brian Cushing, a multi-talented player who will help\replace Jonathon Vilma, who may have some legal troubles. The Texans, who need a corner and a safety, get a bit of both in the sliding Malcolm Jenkins. He can help right away at either spot. The Chargers gladly snag Rey Malauga and hope he’s half the player Junior Seau was.

At #17, the Jets are forced to reach on Josh Freeman to fill their QB need and the Broncos snap up Clay Matthews to play behind Jerry in the rebuilt defense. The Bucs are looking for a WR at #19 but they need front 7 help more, and the sizable Tyson Jackson can fill in a couple spots, depending on needs. The Lions are happy to get Oher, meaning that they have their QBOTF and LT of the now all sorted out.

The Eagles would have loved Oher at #21 but they quickly take Ohio State’s Chris “Beanie” Wells, the first RB off the board and a guy who can take some of the load off Brian Westbrook. The Vikings start creating scarcity in the teams below them by snapping up speedy WR Percy Harvin. The Patriots have had their eye on CB Darius Butler for a while now, and they happily snap him up. The Falcons close out this group of 4 by pulling the biggest surprise of the 1st round, Cincinnati’s athletic Conner Barwin to plug a hole at LB. They’ll take more than one LB in this draft.

Now the panic run on WR’s officially begins, with the Dolphins, Ravens, Colts and Eagles grabbing all of the remaining top 50 level talents off the board in quick succession, leaving the Giants and Titans with nothing to choose from.

The Giants rebound by filling their #2 need with LB James Laurenitis, and the Titans surprise a lot of people by grabbing Utah’s big CB Sean Smith. The Cardinals happily take Knowshon Moreno to fill the workhorse RB role, and the Steelers finish off the first round by taking G\C Alex Mack of California. Interesting stuff.