Are the Seahawks Looking to Trade Down?

Lots of teams covet Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree

As the first 3 picks of the 2009 NFL Draft begin to solidify, it’s looking increasingly like the Seahawks may have a choice between Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, or Wake Forrest OLB Aaron Curry. While each would make sense for the Seahawks, none would likely be the immediate first-year impact player the team needs to help them this year.

As I see it, there are 6 players who might be a fit for the Seahawks at the #4 spot:

1. Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree
2. Baylor OT Jason Smith
3. Wake Forest OLB Aaron Curry
4. Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
5. Virginia OT Eugene Monroe
6. USC QB Mark Sanchez

As the draft approaches, I’m warming to Crabtree, who is more and more often gaining the praise of scouts as a sure fire impact player along the lines of Houston’s Andre Johnson or Detroit’s Calvin Johnson. The Seahawks could certainly use a player like that on the offensive side of the ball. The truth is, the Seahawks have a lot of average players, but few special ones. Crabtree has the chance to be special.

That said, a QB of the future like Mark Sanchez or Matthew Stafford makes a lot of sense also, since Matt Hasselbeck is undeniably on the downside of his career and there isn’t any player on the roster who can step in for him effectively. However, I get the sense the Seahawks (read GM Tim “Timmay!” Ruskell) don’t want to go this direction, since as I stated, it makes too much sense.

Curry would also make a difference for the Seahawks, adding back a dynamic, athletic pass rusher from the second line of defense to replace the departed Julian Peterson. But again, I don’t sense that this is a priority for the team, since once again they’d have a significant chunk of the team’s cap space invested in the LB position, a problem they just gained some relief from by dumping Petersen’s contract. It might also blunt the further development of Leroy Hill and David Hawthorne, two young players the team would like to see get more opportunities in the new defensive scheme.

The other possibilities are that one of the top left tackles like Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith drops to the Seahawks. Either could solidify an aging and under-talented OL unit. But with Walter Jones still occupying the LT spot, where would they play?

So against this backdrop of “yeah, maybe” players that might fit for the Seahawks, the rumor persist that maybe somebody wants to trade into the top end of the draft to grab Stafford or Crabtree, or one of the 2 elite tackles. Could the Seahawks be a trading partner?

The short answer is yes. Trading down would give the Seahawks additional opportunities to turn over the personnel of a 4-12 team with no true superstars on its roster. The problem with this scenario is the proverbial one; who do you trade with? Who has enough juice to come get the 4th pick in the draft and the crying need for a player like Crabtree or Monroe? The answer to that one is -- only 1 team;

The Philadelphia Eagles.

We’ve all heard the rumors that the Eagles are interested in trading up into the top of the draft to get an impact player to satisfy franchise QB Donovan McNabb. Someone like Crabtree would certainly fit that description. Assuming this is true, their most logical trading partner would seem to be the Seahawks. Kansas City may be looking to trade out as well, but the price in terms of draft picks and bonus money would be quite a bit higher (the #3 pick is worth 400 more points, the equivalent of a second round pick, and the difference in guaranteed bonus money between the #4 and #3 picks last year was a whopping $8.75 million).

Using the standard draft pick trade value charts, the Seahawks pick at #4 in round 1 is theoretically worth 1,800 points. Assuming both teams wanted to do a deal, the Eagles would have to cough up both of their firsts (#21 and #28), their second round pick (#53) and their 4th round pick (#121). This would leave the Seahawks with a 30 point deficit, which they could make up by swapping their 4th round pick (#105) back to the Eagles. This equalizes the trade value at 1,880 points or so. Here’s the breakdown:

Seahawks get #21 (800 pts.) + #28 (660 pts.) + #53 (370 pts.) + #121 (52 pts.) = 1,882 pts.

Eagles get #4 (1,800 pts.) + #105 (84 pts.) = 1,884 pts.

This seems like a very doable deal from the Eagles perspective. They get the impact offensive weapon they want in Crabtree and still have a 3rd round pick (#85) on the first day, plus all their second day picks and they have moved up 16 spots in the 4th round. For the Seahawks however, it may create more issues than it alleviates.

The problem as I see is that this deal leaves the Seahawks with 12 draft picks, (#21 and #28 in the first round, #37 and #53 in the 2nd, #68 in round 3, #121 in round 4, #137 in round 5, #178 in round 6 and #’s 213, 245, 247 and 248 in round 7. Although it’s always a good idea to turn over the roster on a 4-12 team, I just can’t see 12 rookies making the team next year. Still, it’s a tempting haul. Instead of facing a tough decision on a single player who will cost a fortune in guaranteed money (last years #4 overall pick, Raiders RB Darren McFadden, got $26 million in guarantees), the Seahawks can drop down and pick up 3 first day players for far less guaranteed money. (The 21st overall pick in last years draft, USC OT Sam Baker, got $8 million in guaranteed money, the #28 pick, the Seahawks Lawrence Jackson, got $6.1 million guaranteed, and the #53 pick, Pittsburgh WR Limas Sweed, got $1.62 million in guarantees, bring the total to only $15.72 million in guaranteed money).

However, if there were players the Seahawks were targeting in rounds 2 and 3, they could easily part with some of their second day picks to move up in each round and grab specific players that intrigued them. Or they could try and move down or out by moving some of their second day picks into next year. The 5th round pick they got in the Cory Redding deal might for instance net them a 4th rounder next year if they chose to trade it.

This could also be a factor in making a deal with the only other team that holds 2 first round picks, the Detroit Lions. The teams have already good lines of communication going after the Petersen for Redding trade, and trying to trade with Seahawks might make a lot of sense for the Lions. In addition to the #1 overall pick, the Lions hold the #20 pick from the Roy Williams trade. The Lions seem to be leaning toward a player with a low risk factor and signability with the #1 overall pick, and that would seem to translate more to one of the tackles, like Jason Smith than it does to one of the QB’s, like Stafford. If the Lions wanted the #4 pick in addition to the #1 pick, would it be worth for them to do so, and would it be possible?

Again, the answer seems to be yes.

The #20 overall pick is, according to the trade charts, worth 850 points, leaving the Lions about 950 points from moving up to #4. Their first pick in the second round, #33 overall, is worth 580 points, dropping the deficit to 370 points, the equivalent of a late second round pick. But what if the Lions wanted to keep their 2nd and 3rd round picks this year, and instead chose to offer their 1st round pick next year? Most likely, it would be a top ten pick, valued at 1,300 points minimum, which would mean that a package of #20 this year and #10 next year (theoretically) could come to a value of 2150 points, leaving the Seahawks in a 350 point deficit. The Seahawks could toss in a token pick in next year’s draft, say their 4th rounder, to make the deal look better.

Okay, why would the Lions do this? Well, their new management team has expressed the belief that they must build in the trenches first, but has also said they need a QB of the future to build around. By taking Smith 1st overall and Stafford 4th, they save a ton of money and get both their franchise left tackle and their QB of the future. They also don’t have to spend even more in guarantees next year, and they get their QB of the future a year early. This also gives them a chance to bring Stafford along slowly, rather than rushing him into action. The Seahawks get to move down into the bottom third of the 1st round, saving them a ton of cash and they don’t have to add a bunch of players who probably won’t even make the roster. Next year, they have 2 first round picks to play with, one of which might even be a top 10 selection. Also, the Lions could toss in 2007 2nd round pick QB Drew Stanton in return for a higher pick from the Seahawks next year, say their 3rd rounder.

Granted, this trade has only a long shot chance of coming off, since with the CBA in limbo nobody even knows for certain there will be a draft next year, but it is plausible. However, the Eagles deal seems much more likely.

The bottom line is if the Seahawks want to trade down, there are a couple of possibilities, beyond the idea of moving down a few spots. There are rumors that the Jags and Raiders both covet Crabtree, and trading down to either the 7th or 8th pick in the first round would net them a 3rd and 4th at least, and maybe a 2nd from either team (although they’d probably have to swap back a second day pick in either case).

And just in case you don’t think this is very realistic, you may have noticed that the Seahawks brought in a number of players this week that are expected to go in the mid-to-late 1st round area, about where they’d be picking if they did the deal with the Eagles.

So things could get pretty interesting on draft day. We’ll see.

Posted by Mike Bara 3\30\2009